Lotteries: What are the odds?
Canada’s biggest lottery jackpot — $54.3 million — was won by a group of 17 oil workers in Camrose, Alta., in October 2005.
What we spend on gambling, by income group
|After-tax income||Average expenditure||Expenditure as percentage of total income|
|Less than $20,000||$491||3.6|
|$20,000 to $39,999||$539||1.8|
|$40,000 to $59,999||$527||1.1|
|$60,000 to $79,999||$555||0.8|
|$80,000 and over||$618||0.5|
Total ticket sales for that draw reached $99,474,164.
Out of almost 50 million tickets sold for that Lotto 6/49 draw, one extraordinarily lucky group had beaten the odds of one in 13,983,816.
It was Canada’s greatest attack of lottery fever. There have been a few since then, including a $50 million prize in Canada’s newest national lottery — Lotto Max. That was won by Marie and Kirby Fontaine of Sagkeeng First Nation, northeast of Winnipeg, in November 2009.
Those of us who do play the lottery — and approximately one-quarter of Canadians play weekly — have heard those odds many times before. Pay $2 and your odds of becoming a millionaire are approximately 1 in 14 million.
Your odds are even worse for winning Lotto Max. For $5, you buying a one in 28,633,528 chance at winning at least $15 million.
Those odds are so long that you are more likely to:
- Be killed in a terrorist attack while travelling (1 in 650,000).
- Die — during an average lifetime — of flesh-eating disease (1 in one million).
- Be killed by lightning (1 in 56,439).
You are three times more likely to be killed in a traffic accident driving 16 kilometres to buy your ticket than winning the jackpot.
In 2002, you were about 10 times more likely to die after being bitten by a poisonous snake or lizard than to win a Lotto 6/49 jackpot. Odds for the snakebite death are one in 1,241,661, according to the U.S. National Safety Council.
Want to increase your chances? Buy 50 tickets a week. You are very likely to win the jackpot at least once — in 5,000 years.
Gambling revenues and profits, Canada
|Gambling revenue||$2.734 billion||$12.984 billion|
|Profits from gambling||$1.68 billion||$7.101 billion|
|Gambling as share of total government revenue||1.9%||5.5%|
Source: Statistics Canada
Say you’re standing on a football field. You’re blindfolded and holding a pin. A friend has released an ant on the field. Your chance of piercing that ant with your pin is about the same as winning a Lotto 6/49 jackpot. One in 14 million. Not exactly a sure bet.
You can increase your odds — for a price. You could try to buy enough tickets to cover all possible six number combinations, but at two bucks a shot, that comes out to $27,967,632.
Hardly seems worth the effort, even with the biggest jackpots, especially if two or three other people come up with the same idea.
“Theoretically, you could try,” Pister told CBCNews.ca. “But I don’t think your tickets could be processed in time for the draw.”
Pister adds that when jackpots hit record territory, the bulk of sales tend to be recorded on the day of the draw, particularly in the afternoon.
South of the border, jackpots for the Powerball lottery have reached as high as $365 million. A group of eight workers at the ConAgra Foods plant in Lincoln, Neb., took home that prize in February 2006. The group opted to take their win in a lump sum payment rather than as annual payments. That reduced their win to $177.3 million — before taxes.
To play the Powerball lottery, you select numbers from two pools of numbers. You pick five numbers from a pool of 55 numbered balls. The sixth number — the Powerball — is picked from the second pool of 42 numbers.
Before April 2005, the first pool of numbers contained 53 balls. By adding two balls to that pool, the odds of winning decreased from around 1 in 120.5 million to 1 in 146.1 million. The longer odds meant fewer jackpot winners, which allowed the money to be carried over to the next draw, creating even bigger jackpots.
Mike Orkin, a professor of statistics at California State University, East Bay, and author of What are the odds?, describes the odds of winning the Powerball lottery this way:
“Let’s say you have one friend in Canada, and you put everybody in Canada’s name on pieces of paper, and put them in a giant hat and draw one out at random. Then, you are 2½ times more likely to pick your one friend’s name than you are to win the Powerball jackpot if you buy a single ticket.”
What we spend on lotteries
Albertans spend the least on government-run lotteries ($225 per household) while residents of Nova Scotia spend the most ($278 per household).
Among one-person households, men spend more than twice as much on gambling than women – $763 a year compared to $369 a year. In those one-person households, men between the ages of 45 and 64 are the biggest spending group ($881) in their gender, while women over the age of 65 spend more than any other group ($435) of their gender.
Orkin notes that bigger jackpots drive higher ticket sales — but he says that won’t improve an individual’s chance of winning. It does, however, improve the odds that in that pool of ticket buyers, there will be a winning ticket.
Buying the first ticket will increase the chance to secure financial freedom. No ticket, no chance. One ticket, you’ve improved that to facing astronomical odds. Buying more than one ticket makes your chances a little less astronomical.
If you want to win big, consider taking that $10 a week you might spend on lottery tickets and investing it. After 35 years, you will be guaranteed $100,314.56 — if you get an eight per cent return on your investment. With a 10 per cent return, your weekly $10 would be worth a guaranteed $166,742.59. Make it $12 a week and at 10 per cent, you’ve squirrelled away $200,091.10 after 35 years. Again, guaranteed.
Of course, the whole equation goes out the window if you didn’t join the office lottery pool – and you’re the only one who shows up for work the day after the numbers are drawn.You have a better chance of being struck by lightning than winning the jackpot in one of Canada's major lotteries. However, it does happen
Lotto Max Prizes
There are nine chances to win in each standard Lotto Max draw. Prizes start as low as winning a free play for matching three balls, and reach as high as a multi-million dollar jackpot for matching all seven main numbers drawn.
The minimum Lotto Max jackpot is $10 million, and this jackpot will be carried over to the next draw if it is not won. That is how the jackpot can run into the tens of millions, and if it is not won before it reaches $50 million, the additional MaxMillions game will come into play, giving players even more chances of winning.
The table below shows the odds of winning and the percentage of the Pools Fund allocated to each prize category. The fixed $20 prizes are paid out first, using money from the fund, before the remaining money is split according to the percentages in the table.
|Matches||Prize Pool %||Odds of Winning|
|7/7||87.25%||1 in 33,294,800|
|6/7 + Bonus||2.50%||1 in 4,756,400|
|6/7||2.50%||1 in 113,248|
|5/7 + Bonus||1.50%||1 in 37,749|
|5/7||3.50%||1 in 1,841|
|4/7 + Bonus||2.75%||1 in 1,105|
|4/7||$20||1 in 82.9|
|3/7 + Bonus||$20||1 in 82.9|
|3/7||Free Play||1 in 8.5|
Overall, players have a 1 in 7 chance of winning a Lotto Max prize in every standard draw.
The prize pool on Lotto Max and MaxMillions is pari-mutuel, which means it changes depending on how many tickets are sold and how many winners there are in each tier. The number of MaxMillions prizes on offer also depends on the volume of ticket sales once the Lotto Max jackpot reaches the $50 million threshold.
The odds of winning a prize on MaxMillions are also 1 in 33,294,800, as the player is required to match all seven numbers from a pool of 50, just the same as if they were winning the Lotto Max jackpot. There are no further prizes available for matching fewer than all seven numbers. If more than one player matches all seven numbers, the $1 million prize will be shared amongst each of them.
The MaxMillions prize fund is pari-mutuel, and the number of prizes on offer will depend on ticket sales, and how far above $50 million the total jackpot prize pool is. For example, if the normal Lotto Max prize pool is $60 million, there will be a $50 million Lotto Max jackpot and ten individual MaxMillions prizes of $1 million. In cases where the prize pool is not rounded up to a million, the additional funds will be added to the secondary prize tier instead.
If MaxMillions prizes are not won, the money will be carried over to the following draw.Lotto Max offers nine prize tiers including a jackpot of up to $70 million. Check your odds of winning and find out when MaxMillion prizes become available. ]]>